The Briefing

The Briefing - May 2011 Parliamentary Elections Analysis

Monday 23 May 2011

Results of the Parliamentary Elections

Abstention = 21.3%* 

* Counting into the equation the abstention level the real strength of the parties is: DISY 25.1%, AKEL 23.9%, DIKO 11.5%, EDEK 6.5%, EYROKO 2.8%, Greens 1.6% 

This was never going to be a ‘critical’ election contest regardless of the rhetoric of the political parties during the campaign; it was considered important in terms of ‘messages’ aimed at setting the foundations for the more crucial February 2013 presidential elections. In terms of party shifts it can be said that not much has changed bar the less than expected loss of support for DIKO and EYROKO who have however lost a substantial part of their representation in the House (DIKO lost 2 out of 11 seats and EYROKO 1 out of 3). What is remarkable – for Cyprus’ standards – is that the level of abstention reached 21.3% an unprecedented figure for national elections, almost double that of 2006. In practical terms the most important element of the day after is that the AKEL-DIKO coalition does not have a majority in the House of Representatives (it was 29 and it is now a combined 28 seats out of the 56). The second is that nothing much has changed in terms of the mapping of the political spectrum. DIKO and EDEK remain important factors of the so-called center and will again determine the outcome of the 2013 presidential elections.

Winners and Losers

Both opposition DISY and ruling AKEL can be considered winners increasing their percentage levels though not their support basis in numbers. Together they accumulate 67% of the vote, and, vis a vis, the Cyprus issue it can be claimed that the “realistic” school of thought, that in favour of a federal solution remains very strong.

Opposition DISY had targeted 20 seats, which it has achieved. A marginal 1.6 percentage point win, particularly as ruling AKEL has also increased its support cannot be considered a victory - given the overall resentment that exists against Christofias and the government’s response to the economic crisis. But making sure that AKEL and DIKO would not have a majority in the House is a significant development for DISY. Its leader N Anastassiades in a moderate toned victory speech, spoke of the need to ‘unite forces’, which today’s press describes as ‘presidential’.

Ruling AKEL had sought 19 seats (+1 on 2006) and would have settled for not losing to DISY by more than 2 percentage points, so it too can claim victory. President Christofias – who departs for a week long visit to Australia today – must feel secure in that the party mechanisms performed well, though again in real numbers those who voted for AKEL are fewer than those that voted for it in 2006. AKEL’s Secretary General made a renewed call for closer cooperation with the Democratic Party.

The Democratic Party DIKO was fully aware that it could not touch the performance of 2006 during the Papadopoulos presidency and that a section of its supporters would have punished the party for remaining in Christofia’s government. Its internal target had been 14.8%, so despite its considerable loss of percentage (2.1%) it faired much better than had been anticipated and remains the strongest party to be courted by the main two political parties DISY and AKEL. Marios Garoyian’s remains strong, Nicolas Papadopoulos by far the strongest force but its vice president George Colocasides of the party’s harder line did not make it into the House.

Socialist EDEK could have secured an additional seat had it won 9.5% but it should be happy that it retained almost exactly its level of support and continues to play its traditional role in the centre of the spectrum.

The European Party EYROKO knew from the outset that it could not replicate its 2006 performance and was bound to lose ground. It would have required 4.7% to sustain the three seats it had but it will be happy with retention of two seats, though the loss of Rikkos Erotokritou’s seat will be considered a serious blow.

The Greens though not securing the second seat they had sought must be happy with their performance and a marginal increase in its percentage, re-electing G Perdikis to the House and are the king makers in terms of the election of the Speaker of the House.

The Nationalists ELAM managed to scrape past the 1 percentage point (about 4,400 votes) and are likely to capitalize on their performance, which was probably aided by last week’s clashes in the centre of Nicosia between football hooligans.

The new Speaker of the House

The decision for the president of the House must be taken within the next ten days. It is expected that incumbent Marios Garoyian will be backed by the communist party AKEL but Green MP Perdikis would have to be wooed for a majority to be achieved. It is likely that he may ask for the Environment Committee. The battle for the committees will also be fought in the in the House Selection Board which will decide on the allocation of chairmanships of the Committees. The board which consists of two representatives of the large parties and one from each of the small ones, will decide on the chair and members of the Committees, with the winning party having first say but with a majority in the committee having the final say. One of the decisions already taken by the outgoing House is that the number of Committees will be reduced to achieve greater efficiency. The key battlegrounds are Finance, Legal, Budget and Foreign Affairs.

Some statistics

• Registered voters were 531,136 (an increase of 30,112 voters over 5%) of which 544 Turkish Cypriots. In what is being described as intimidation the Turkish-Cypriot nationalist newspaper Yeni Volkan in the non government controlled areas published on Friday a list of the 544 Turkish-Cypriots registered in the Republic’s electoral roll for yesterday’s parliamentary elections. For the first time 9,311 were registered to vote abroad.
• Final votes counted:  418,181. A staggering for Cyprus 113,282 voters did not bother, despite the fact that voting is compulsory and carries a €341 fine, though not enforced since 2001
• There has been a decrease in the number of women that made it into parliament from 8 out of the 56 in 2006 (14%) to 6 which is only 10%.
• State budget for the election: €5.5 million.